Never Ill Wind Doesn’t Blow Someone Some Good

THE CASE FOR PULLBACK FROM THE MIDDLE EAST

October 11, 2002

by Andrew E. Carlan, Esq.

I. WHERE’S THE OIL? NOT WHERE YOU THINK.

Which nation has the largest reserve of oil?

No, it’s not Saudi Arabia. It isn’t even in the Middle East.

It’s Russia and her former Republics. Most of the world’s known oil reserves are outside the Middle East, the result of new fields in the Americas and the North Sea discovered with new technology in the past decade.

II. STOP TRESPASSING ON HOLY GROUND

Osama Bin Laden tells us he hates us because we desecrate holy ground in Saudi Arabia. He also hates us because we make it impossible to overthrow infidel regimes in the Middle East. O.K. So maybe the Pope would object to oil rigs casting a shadow on St. Peter’s.

Why doesn’t our government test whether he’s telling the truth? If we withdrew they would have no argument with the United States. We could go to the devil as long as we don’t take Muslims with us.

In fact, what difference does it make whether he’s telling the truth or not? The real question is do we have other sources of oil available if we closed down shop in the Middle East?

III. IF RUSSIA SWIMS IN OIL WHY IS IT IN IRAQ?

That’s kind of like arguing if I have a beef herd why should I buy it in the store when US Prime New York Cut is being offered at $2 a pound.

If Russia has so much oil why would she negotiate to get Iraqi oil? Reserves are no good underground even in Saudi Arabia. Companies had to be willing to invest in Saudi Arabia expensive technology to pump the oil out of the ground. Russia doesn’t have the capital. The West does.

Putin is temporarily mad at us and he has good reason. Even since Russia laid down arms, we had dictated to them how they should develop politically and economically and nearly destroyed them in the process. Gorbachev wanted to barter Siberian natural resources for desperately needed capital. But idiots like Clinton’s Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott put on conditions. Free elections, like the kind we have in Massachusetts.Putin doesn’t want to bail us out too easily. But he’s no fool. And unlike the Middle East , we can deal with him as an equal. His irritation with us would decrease the higher we bid for his oil. If he didn’t take some ridiculously high price, he’d be found dead under some peculiar circumstances not of our doing.

IV. TOTAL COSTS GO BEYOND THE PRODUCT ITSELF

That’s nothing surprising. Try building a subway in the sand. Don’t expect to find the stations at the same location tomorrow. But it is easy to dig.

Russian oil is not easy to get at. Until a few years ago, no large-scale drilling technology existed at any price. Now it does. Russian oil appears at first to be uneconomically expensive. Is it really? This doesn’t figure in the real differences the cost of dependence of Middle East and development of capacity elsewhere. Capital already invested cheapens the cost of Middle East oil. If we withdrew, private interests would lose billions of dollars of investment.

Is the price at the neighborhood gas station the real cost? What about the cost of fighting ($3 billion so far for Afghanistan) and keeping U.S. troops in that desert playpen? Every day we stay we spend billions more in defense. And because the threat of our staying produces the terror against us, the costs rise to multi-billions.

What about the incalculable losses in life and real estate that only culminated in 9-11? A few years ago, the government ran a surplus. We’re now drowning in debt. Staying cripples our economy, destroys civil liberties and inconveniences travel. It subjects American citizens to strip searches like common criminals by bumbling guards drunk with power. They doesn’t make flying any safer. They just revel in the opportunity to push people around.

Imagine, no profiling! Any government which would not engage in profiling under the conditions we face is not seriously fighting to protect its people.. Any federal judge who complicates the problem should be tarred, feathered and run out to Afghanistan where she can be expose to the dangers she scornfully imposes on us. We endanger ourselves not only to future traditional forms of attack, but to chemical and biological assault. By that measure, Russian oil becomes a bargain.

IV EVERYONE WANTS THEIR INTEREST AS NATIONAL INTEREST

Two interest groups are unlikely to be convinced because their main private concern may be in opposition to the national interest. In the 50s, the then head of General Motors, Charlie Wilson, told Congress “What’s good for General Motors is good for the country.” Now the question is: Is what’s good for the generals good for the country?

Multinational oil companies owe allegiance only to themselves. They outsize most nations.

Political change can have enormous economic effects. If the United States stopped acting like these companies and their investors private army of Pinkertons, they would belly up. Their investors would loose incredible wealth.

V. BLIND TRUSTS SUGGEST CONFLICT OF INTEREST

Very few at the highest levels of our government aren’t substantially invested directly or indirectly in current technology over venture capital. Otherwise why would they be required by law to put their investments in blind trusts? But not to worry for the rest of us. As with all radical technological change, there never is an ill wind that doesn’t blow someone some good. Those already financing three major pipelines from Russia and her former Republics into Western Europe would make a windfall. And anyone who invested in these risky ventures would also. The losses would be more than balanced by the gains.

VI. NO OIL SOLD LITTLE TERROR FINANCED

Let Osama continue his jihad against the United States. No oil revenue means these countries will revert to the poorest in the world. Israel would be the biggest beneficiary. It would not need to rely on us. When you want to destroy a field of weeds you don’t go looking for individual blades, you cut off nourishment at the source. Osama may want still want to destroy the United States and Israel, but how will he finance his plans? Who will sell him weapons when within the ruling Saudi family disposable income drops like a rock? Iran, you answer.

VII. BUT IRAN WORST THREAT WITH RESOURCES

A friend said “but we leave Israel behind to face Iran as well as Iraq and they are not poor.” No, with us out of the way, Israeli intelligence will be better able to recruit dissatisfied Iranians.

Young people make up highest percentage of the total population of any nation. They are restless for things Western. They elected a civilian government at odds with the clerics, the military and most critically the secret police. Unfortunately, the latter remain the real power. After seeing what Ben Laden could do they upped support and haven to terror organizations like Hezbollah.

How do you recruit among the discontent if you can’t speak their language. , At the time of the suicide attacks on 11 September, the US intelligence agencies did not have a single competent speaker of Pushto - the language of the Taliban - on active service. Local intelligence agents on the ground in the 90% of Afghanistan controlled by the Taliban are believed to have been similarly lacking, despite Bin Laden’s presence on the FBI’s ‘Most Wanted’ list for several years.

Thousands of expatriate Iranians are now citizens of the United States. Some surely are aching to go back and free their country. Yes, and haven’t you ever asked yourself where are the thousands of loyal Muslim Americans willing to volunteer for CIA assignments?

VIII. GOVERNMENT THRIVES ON CRISES.

The Pentagon also benefits from pigheadedness, “nobody’s going to push us around.” It and the CIA and now Homeland Security operate according to a permanent law of bureaucracy. Problems create growth opportunities. This applies to all walks of life. If crime goes down so does the value of police work. If disease were conquered doctors would be disposable. If citizens brought fewer lawsuits, lawyers would be displaced.

John Updike wrote “If there’s no Cold War, what’s the point of being an American?” More to the point if there’s no war threat what’s the point of a big Pentagon budget? The organized interest disappointed by Russia’s capitulation without war are the Young Turks in the military and politicians. War is the best condition for the swollen growth of government, regulations and taxes. Individual liberty never survives an Empire. Our leaders have to find another enemy or their careers face deadends.

IX. WE AGAIN FINANCE OUR OWN CASUALTIES.

The Japanese melted down the scrap metal from New York’s 6^th Avenue “EL”. The steel came home in the bodies of our troops. Every dollar we spend on Middle East oil comes home not only as energy but as terror we finance. Nobody’s that stupid. There must be more to this, not ususual in the world of politics where the only tomorrow is Election Day. Anything past that is theology.

If we pulled out the Middle East we’d leave a pajama-clad insane asylum behind. We be better able to lend advice from a disinterested perspective if asked. We’d mind our own business. The locals could kill each other as long as it pleases them. We could, however, be an example rather than a busybody. But social visionaries joined with neo-conservatives believe we were put on this earth to tell everyone else how to live. We have to secularize the entire population of the Middle East otherwise we can’t sleep. We haven’t been sleeping very well butting into to every marital feud. Both parties turn on us and we are surprised! 

X. BEGAN WITH SPANISH AMERICAN WAR AND HASN’T STOPPED

Going back to Presidents McKinley, Roosevelt and Wilson, we lost our inheritance from the Founding Fathers to protect liberty by staying out of unnecessary conflict and cultivating useful trade with all nations impartially. That’s where the trouble began. Even Wilson could have made an Europe peace earlier among the belligerents had he exercised strict neutrality and the offer of mediation.

XII IS ISRAEL VALUABLE TO US?

Is Israel valuable to us? Yes, but not because it’s a democracy, which it may or may not be. Israel’s value is that it runs street-wise intelligence services wheras most of our operatives haven’t been outside wood paneled offices in years. If Irael has confidence that the information being exchanged is equally valuable, than its warnings warrant the highest respect. But if we are engaging in again in disinformation, worst out of ignorance, so will Israel.

Write me if you have the inclination. You who are upright can write also.

© 2002 Andrew E. Carlan, Esq.