Why is Biden Losing? “It’s the Economy, Stupid”

In the 1992 presidential race, James Carville, the political strategist for Democratic Party nominee Bill Clinton, coined the immortal phrase, “It’s the Economy, Stupid” in response to media questions about the rationale for the campaign.

Clinton’s opponent, President George H. W. Bush had won the first Gulf War in 1991 and had enjoyed massive popularity in the aftermath. However, by the following year, voters were distressed about the condition of the economy and fired Bush, replacing him with the smooth talking but morally questionable Bill Clinton.

Although Americans feel pride about military victories, “people vote their pocketbooks.” Over three decades later, the same dynamics are at play in this presidential race.

The only difference is that President Joe Biden cannot claim any military victories. He has decimated the military with woke leadership and policies, such that recruitment is not meeting even reduced goals. Even worse, his 2021 military withdrawal from Afghanistan was a debacle of historic proportions. It certainly encouraged Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine and start a war that is still ongoing.

Along with a multitude of foreign policy missteps, several wars raging internationally, the border invasion breaking records, the drug overdose epidemic, the crime and decay in urban America, and the crisis of radicals disrupting our college campuses, the issue most upsetting to the American people remains the economic woes in the country.

In a Gallup poll, conducted in March 2024, Americans were asked, “What is the most important problem facing the country today?” Although immigration was a strong second among respondents at 28%, economic problems topped the poll at 30%.

It is impossible to argue with the American people on this issue. The national debt has ballooned to $34.7 trillion, which is so massive that it averages $267,000 per taxpayer.  This is an increase of $6.8 trillion since the start of the Biden administration.

Currently, our debt is 99% of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that it will skyrocket to 166% of the country’s GDP by 2054, a staggering $141 trillion debt.

According to the CBO, the continually increasing federal debt will “slow economic growth, push up interest payments to foreign holders of U.S. debt, and pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook.”

The insatiable appetite for federal spending is a major reason inflation remains high and interest rates have not fallen. As noted by Jeff Cox of CNBC, this combination is toxic for the economy, as “shoppers are spending more than they’re taking in, a situation neither sustainable nor disinflationary.” He also observes that “consumers are dipping into savings to fund those purchases, creating a precarious scenario.”

This “precarious scenario” was verified on Friday with the release of the latest report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. As shown in three of the last four months, the income of Americans did not keep pace with spending. Thus, the personal saving rate of Americans plummeted to 3.2% in March. In contrast, when President Donald Trump left office in January of 2021, the personal saving rate of Americans averaged 19.3%.

Last week, other troubling data was released, as it was reported that inflation in the first quarter of the year registered a scorching 3.7%, while the real GDP growth was only 1.6%.

These factors will not allow the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and give the nation’s economy the “soft landing” the Biden administration wanted. With high-interest rates, it is no surprise that credit delinquencies have reached their highest level in a decade.

While the unemployment rate is low at 3.8%, most of the jobs that have been added are either in the government or part-time.

Overall, the Biden economic record is abysmal, especially compared to President Trump’s record. In his term, the unemployment rate started at 4.7% and dropped to 3.5% prior to the pandemic. When he left office, the unemployment rate was cut more than 50% from the COVID high.

Trump also left office with low inflation and interest rates, a marked contrast to the economic situation today. Thus, it should be no surprise that the latest CNN poll shows President Trump with a healthy 49-43% lead over Biden. With Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and other third-party candidates included, Trump’s lead over Biden increased to nine percentage points, 42-33%.

This is President Trump’s largest lead over Biden. The reason is simple, Trump helped create peace abroad and prosperity at home, rebuild the military, and give Americans a secure border. Conversely, Biden has destroyed our economy and our standing abroad, while opening the border and ruining our military readiness.

Even CNN pollster Jennifer Agiesta had to acknowledge the stark contrast in the survey results. Comparing the presidencies of Trump and Biden, she wrote, “most Americans” view “Trump’s term as president was a success, while a broad majority says Biden’s has so far been a failure.” Yes, the biggest failure to ever occupy the White House.