I don’t know when the next war against Israel will begin, but I am sure that it will be blamed on Israel, not the people launching the rockets or even possibly crossing the border in an armed attack.
I am fairly sure that the war will come some time this summer, possibly July or August. In the end, the decision will be Iran’s, not Syria’s, its sock puppet and stalking horse. Syria has provided Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, an estimated 1,000 Iranian-made ballistic missiles, all aimed at Israel.
The Egyptians underestimated Israeli intelligence in 1967 and, as a result, experienced a preemptive strike that buried their bad intentions in six days. It was the third time Arabs had waged war against Israel and lost. The boys from Hezbollah should draw a lesson from that, but they won’t.
The last time the Israelis had to deal with Hezbollah aggression from Lebanon was in 2006. The conflict lasted 34 days. It is widely agreed that the Israeli Defense Force performed poorly and, not surprisingly, the most criticism came from the Israelis themselves. That, you can be sure, is not a mistake that will occur again.
Part of the problem at the time was the then-Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, who has since been replaced by Benyamin Netanyahu. If “Bibi” gets any intelligence regarding an attack, he will not wait around for it to start.
Frankly, some fairly odd goings-on are going on. You may recall that in March Netanyahu received one of the nastiest receptions ever accorded an Israeli Prime Minister by Barack Obama. Only the Dalai Lama fared worse, being ushered out the White House back door.
One might reasonably assume that the president is no fan of Jews after having spent twenty years in the pews listening to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright say bad things about them. Indeed, Obama has many close ties with anti-Semites. Even so, current U.S. interests likely trump his personal bias.
In recent days, Obama’s chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, has been in Israel, officially to celebrate his son Zack’s bar mitzvah. Emanuel has family ties to Israel. He also carried invitation to Netanyahu for a chat on June 2. This invitation suggests that there’s something going on in Hezbollah-land that requires consultation with its declared enemy, Israel.
Then, of course, there are the Syrians. They have moved a number of their army units to the Israeli border and have been supplying arms to Hezbollah ever since the last war.
Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been saying ever more crazy things of late. He even lectured the United Nations on the coming of the Twelfth Imam, a Shiite spook whose return will require massive worldwide death and destruction. More recently Mahmoud got into a fight with Russia over the proposed UN sanctions. Iran is running out of friends even if not oil.
The Israelis have been practicing war games that include long distance flights, the purpose of which may have something to do with dropping some very big bombs on places with Persian names.
While all this is going on, the United States is currently significantly building up its fighting strength in the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf regions. Carrier Strike Group 10, led by the USS Harry S. Truman, pulled up anchor on May 21st and headed to the Middle East. That will put two carrier groups in the area. More vessels, including guided-missile cruisers and destroyers will be there as well.
There is some considerable irony that President Obama who campaigned loudly against George W. Bush’s military actions in Iraq is now going the same route in anticipation of providing support in the event of an attack on Israel and/or the need to support an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Obama is on record saying he will not accept a nuclear Iran.
No matter how it plays out, the Middle East is going to turn into a shooting gallery again. The Iranians, Syrians, and Palestinians in Hezbollah and Hamas are living testimony to why all those people demanding that Israel make peace with them are clueless or worse.