Hakeem Jeffries, Next President?

The Presidential election of 2024 may be the most difficult in our country's history. It is possible that a person who didn’t run for the office of President and didn’t get one vote could wind up being the President. 

I want to clarify how what seems to be a silly idea to some people could happen. The rationale behind this could start today. Rep. Ken Buck (R - Colo.) announced that Friday would be his last day in Congress. Rep. Mike Gallagher (R - Wis.) said he would also leave Congress on April 19, leaving the Republican caucus with only one spare vote to pass legislation.

What is essential is that Marjorie Taylor Green, a Republican from Georgia, has filed a motion to remove Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La., as House Speaker. Based on the current makeup of the House, if her motion comes to the floor, she will need all Republicans to pass it. She may get a few Democrats to vote for the removal of Mike Johnson. The next step is for the House to select a new Speaker.

The Democrats will get behind Jeffries (D - NY), and about three Republicans must defect and vote for him to be the speaker. If it comes to a vote, Jeffries will win, and step one will be complete. With Jeffries as speaker, all the current Republican House committees will lose the Republican leadership, and the Democrats will take control and shut down all the impeachment investigations. Nothing will come out of Congress against Joe Biden just in time for the beginning of the presidential campaign.

The next step will be the election with three significant candidates. Depending on who you believe, the campaign between Biden and Trump is within the margin of error. We must add RFK Jr to the mix with his 15% approval. There are 538 electoral votes in play, and 270 are needed to win the presidency. If we assume that Kennedy doesn’t expand his popularity, he could win as many as 80 electoral votes. That would leave 538 between Biden and Trump. An equal split would be 229 each, which would not be enough to win the election. Either candidate would have to get 60% of the remaining votes to be elected; if nobody has the 270 votes, the election is turned over to the House to select the President.  

Each state has one vote to select a president; the candidate needs 26 votes to win. If the Democrats win the house and Jeffries is the speaker, there is no certainty they can force the necessary votes to select the president. 

While this happens in the House, the Senate selects the vice president. Only the top two vice presidential candidates can be considered. A candidate needs 51 votes to win the vice presidency. If the House has not picked a president by January 20th, the Senate-elected vice president will become acting president until the House selects the president. 

Now we come to Hakeem Jeffries. If the Senate cannot agree on a vice president who must get 26 votes, the Speaker of the House will be selected as acting president until the Senate chooses a vice president. The Speaker remains the acting president until the election is resolved. We had one time when the President and the vice president were from different parties. It was when John Quincy Adams and Thomas Jefferson were from other parties.   

Given our divided country, the margin of victory in the 2020 election was 81,000 votes. We are further divided than in 2020, and I can see my scenario unfolding. The first step is the new Speaker, Hakeem Jeffries. Watch for stories to start breaking as we approach the Democratic convention in late August.

Cut this out and hang it on your refrigerator.

Steps to watch.

Republicans don’t have the votes to remove the Speaker and ask Democrats for help.

Jeffries runs for Speaker.

Republicans put him over the top.

Committee Chairs switch. 

Impeachment investigation suspended.

Hunter Biden hearings stop.

Election inconclusive.

Neither candidate gets 270.

Senate tries to select acting president fails. The candidate needs 51 votes.

Speaker of the House becomes acting president.

Riots in the streets.

I guess we'll see…