Is Trump Taking Too Much Risk?

For those of us who often lamented the state of government in America, and had on our wish list, “If only we could get a businessman in there to run things,” well, we’ve gotten our wish. And as the old adage goes, “Be careful what you wish for.”

There can be no doubt that Operation Epic Fury has thus far been, militarily speaking, a resounding success. The Iranian defense establishment has been destroyed or decimated to the point of limited effectiveness to fight back. However, the surviving mullahs and their supporters are not yet giving up, vowing payback and refusing to step down. The $64,000 question now is, how much (if any) did the Trump team factor in the intransigence and reluctance to relinquish power of the still-existing regime? What are the chances that Iran will end up in a better governmental situation a month or a year from now than they were at the end of February 2026?

Taking an honest look at President Trump’s business career, it doesn’t take much digging to see that it’s been littered with failures – a failed university, a failed airline, and several corporate bankruptcy filings to name a few. In itself, this may not be all that alarming. However, the attitude one has when experiencing failure says a lot about who they are. If they are genuinely humbled by the experience and vow to learn some lessons from it, then that’s someone creating a positive out of a negative. If their willingness to take significant risks in the future is tempered somewhat, so much the better. 

But if instead, the owner refuses to take responsibility and foists the blame onto others, that indicates one who’s making an already negative situation worse. Does Trump fall into this second category? Well, in my opinion, even as one who’s voted for Trump three times now, the answer is certainly more yes than no. And this factor may reach a critical mass when it comes to managing the ongoing war against Iran.

In looking at our strategy vis-à-vis Iran over the years, there is a typical American tendency to look at another country and its people as malleable enough to eventually see things our way, even if all visible evidence (such as constant chants of “death to America”) is to the contrary. President Carter started the current ball in motion by tacitly believing that Ayatollah Khomeini was the better choice to lead Iran than the admittedly corrupt and egomaniacal Shah. Back in 1979, this change seemed to be what the Iranian people wanted, so Carter was inclined to not “meddle.” 

Subsequent history has shown how horribly wrong that belief was. Presidents Obama and Biden thought that extending an olive branch filled with money bags would soften the Iranian government’s insane hatred of America. Obviously, all this financial wheedling did was to make Iran an even more effective sponsor of global terrorism. With these clear Democratic failures in the rearview mirror, how can Trump assure himself, and the American people, that his guns-a-blazing approach will win where others have lost? The short answer is that he cannot, in all honesty, make that claim with a straight face now – although Lord knows he will try.

There’s little doubt that Trump sees himself as a once-in-a-lifetime, transformational president. With that in mind, it seems there is almost no risk that he’s averse to taking, whether it be tariff imposition without Congressional approval, toppling dictators who are seen as threats to American interests, and destroying vessels of alleged drug-runners. Unlike a more rational businessman who piles success upon success based on careful risk analysis, Trump so believes in his vision that there seems to be no risk too big to overcome in furthering that vision. And his hyperbolic attitude toward his accomplishments makes his arguments and actions hard to follow at times. Concerning Iran, didn’t the administration claim that Operation Midnight Hammer last year destroyed Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons? If so, wasn’t that the major threat of concern to American interests?

Yes, it’s true that masses of the Iranian people have been protesting against their heavy-handed government, and the mullahs in charge have seen fit to murder thousands of them in retaliation. However, whom do the protesting masses have in mind as a viable leader to replace the Islamic theocracy? Is what we have done in destroying the framework of that government and most of its military power enough? Only time will tell, and it may be a longer time than the Trump team bargained for. Don’t get me wrong, I’m hoping and praying that this action will result in genuine regime change and a renewed ally in Iran. But in the meantime, as gasoline prices surge here at home, another round of damaging inflation cannot be far behind. As a result, Trump’s actions may lead to a Democrat-controlled Congress later this year that will stonewall him at every turn for the remainder of his term. And that could affect how the Iranian situation ultimately resolves.