Red Storm Rising Over Latin America

October 6, 2002

by David T. Pyne

Note: This is Part 1 of a special two-part series on next week’s presidential elections in Brazil.

With the Washington Times reporting earlier this week that the candidate of the Brazilian Workers’ Party, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, best known simply as Lula, is polling only one percentage point less than what he needs to win the first round of voting in the Brazilian presidential election on Sunday while a couple of far left candidates leading in the race for Argentina’s presidential elections to be held next March, it seems that the Bush Administration’s Latin America policy is about to be thrown for a loop. It appears that a new terrorist supporting the "axis of evil" and seeking to develop weapons of mass destruction and long range ballistic missiles is about to be established in America’s backyard.

According to the latest poll, Lula leads his nearest opponent, Jose Serra, by a margin of 44% to 19% and virtually all observers agree that if he does not obtain a majority or exceed the voting percentage of all of his competitors when Brazilians go to the polls this Sunday, he would probably beat any of his opponents by a comfortable margin in the second round of voting on October 27^th if he did not succeed in winning a majority of votes cast in the first round. Lula is the leader of a Communist coalition consisting of both of Brazil’s Communist parties. As yet, this author has been alone in reporting on Lula’s strong internal Communist connections and the fact that he has enjoyed the strong support of both Brazilian Communist parties in all four presidential elections in which he has run including this one. This author lived in Brazil in 1989 when Lula came within a whisker of wining the Presidency and is accordingly intimately familiar with Lula and what a Lula victory would mean.

On Sept. 6, Lula said that his election would "change many things in the region, with repercussions in Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Colombia." Lula has praised both Cuban President Fidel Castro and President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and has declared Chavez to be the model, which he intends to emulate when he wins the Presidency later this month. Chavez has aligned himself with Cuba, the PRC, Iran, Iraq and Libya and assorted other rogue states and provides $2 billion a year in oil subsidies to help support Castro in power in Cuba. Chavez repudiated the Venezuelan constitution and dissolved Congress shortly after he was elected to consolidate power. Hugo Chavez has called Lula "a great man," and predicts that "the left is going to win in Brazil. Changes are coming step by step on this continent. I think about it day and night." A Lula electoral victory in this month’s Brazilian presidential elections is, "Fidel Castro’s top political objective for 2002" in the words of Latin America analyst and former Reagan speechwriter Mark Klugmann.

Lula has expressed a desire to forge an alliance with Communist China if elected and strengthen military ties. He has expressed strong support for Marxist insurgents and terrorists throughout Latin America included the FARC narcoterrorists in Columbia fighting to take control over their respective nations though his Forum of Sao Paulo, which he founded with Fidel Castro over a decade ago. The Forum of Sao Paulo’s ultimate objective is nothing less than the Communization of the entire Latin America continent, one country at a time. In December 2001 at a meeting of his Forum of Sao Paulo, Lula and his comrades proclaimed their united opposition to the US war on terrorism.

While campaigning for his Marxist comrade, Lula, in Brazil this past week, the Reverend Jesse Jackson hailed Lula as being inspired by the "same special spirit" as that which inspired African National Congress leader and former South African President Nelson Mandela. Indeed he is, for the ANC was and remains a Marxist terrorist organization that today rules the Republic of South Africa in open coalition with the South African Communist Party (SACP). In fact, Mandela’s successor as South African President, Thabo Mbeki, is a member of the SACP. Just like Mandela, Lula is essentially Communist both in outlook and by the friends and associates he keeps, although not yet a card carrying member. Like Castro and Chavez, Lula will wait to formally declare himself a Communist once his permanent dictatorship and control over Brazil is assured. Argentina appears to be on the verge of electing a far-left candidate as President early next year as well. It is increasingly apparent that much of the region may well be in danger of falling like dominoes to the Communists beginning when Lula is elected President of Brazil later this month. The Bush Administration will have to act quickly and a lot more effectively then they have in regards to Brazil if it has any hopes of stemming the "Red" storm rising over Latin America.

Next up: Part 2 -- Re-implement the Monroe Doctrine to Counter the Imminent Takeover of Brazil by the Far Left

(EDITOR’S NOTE: Due to time constraints, we are running both articles of this two-part series together.)

Re-implement the Monroe Doctrine to Counter the Imminent Takeover of Brazil by the Far Left
By David T. Pyne

Note: This is the final installment of a special two-part series on next week’s presidential elections in Brazil.

The standard-bearer of a Communist electoral coalition, Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, who has aligned himself with America’s rogue state and terrorist enemies, seems poised to win the Brazilian presidential election as early as this Sunday. Latin America, long neglected by successive US Administrations as relatively unimportant, may be on the verge of being transformed into a "second front" for America in its ongoing war against terrorism. This disturbing development constitutes yet another warning sign for the Bush Administration involved as it is in a mad-dash to pursue a reckless and ill-considered invasion and long-term occupation of Iraq which will likely serve to bog down the already badly overextended US armed forces for decades to come at the cost of hundreds of billions of dollars.

Lula, the candidate of Brazil’s Marxist-oriented Workers’ Party, has worked hard to attempt to recast himself as a more centrist candidate with a pledge to continue current President Cardoso’s successful economic program, which proved so successful in taming Brazil’s runaway inflation of the 1980s and his selection of a widely respected centrist as his Vice presidential nominee. While he suggested earlier in the campaign that it might be in Brazil’s best interests to default on its $250 billion debt, as the election moves ever closer he has suggested that he might honor Brazil’s debt rather than repudiate it in a bid to ease the concerns of business interests and Brazil’s upper class. Despite his more recent assurances to the contrary, Lula is likely to opt to default on Brazil’s $250 million debt, which could spark another global recession similar to the one that began in Asia in 1998. A further major economic downturn in Latin America could go far to aid in Lula’s and Castro’s efforts to radicalize Latin America and help fellow Marxists take power in neighboring states.

Although Lula has backtracked somewhat from his earlier denunciation of President Bush’s admittedly dubious plan for a regional trade grouping, the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), scheduled to be in place in 2005, as nothing but "a USA annexation project", it is clear that he remains very much opposed to Bush’s FTAA initiative. While many Brazilians and even some US analysts genuinely believe that Lula has mellowed from his Marxist revolutionary days of a few years ago, it is apparent to many observers including myself that Lula’s attempt to make himself appear more moderate is nothing but an attempt at window dressing and campaign posturing in order to maximize his chances for winning this month’s presidential election.

Even though he was a longtime opponent of Brazil’s past military dictatorships, Lula now openly courts the military. During an address to some of Brazil’s top military thinkers on September 13^th, he questioned Brazil’s participation in nuclear nonproliferation treaties and suggested that it might be in Brazil’s best interest to restart its nuclear missile program. Lula has used nationalism very successfully during his campaign to increase his popular support and the Bush Administration needs to try to counter his success and appeal to the opposition by recognizing and encouraging Brazilian national interests and by cooperating with them on regional security and economic issues on an entirely equal basis.

It is not at all clear that the Bush Administration has taken the time to carefully consider what a Lula victory in the Brazilian presidential elections this month would mean for Latin America or for US foreign policy for that matter. Brazil is the fifth most populous nation in the world with over 175 million people and has the world’s eighth largest economy. In addition to threatening to restart Brazil’s nuclear missile program, Lula has expressed his intention to ally Brazil with Communist China and increase pre-existing weapons of mass destruction as well as military cooperation with the PRC.

The Voice of America, still led by holdovers from the Clinton Administration decided to cease broadcasting in Brazil months ago and accordingly missed a very important opportunity to influence public opinion in Brazil and warn of the consequences of electing someone as far-left and anti-American as Lula. President Bush should appoint anti-Communist conservatives to head up Voice of America to replace the current crop of Clinton holdovers, which lead it. VOA Broadcasts to Brazil must be resumed immediately to try to convince Brazilians that it is not in their best interests to elect a Communist coalition candidate which will align their country with Communist Cuba and Communist China and Communist-led Venezuela and place their country at serious odds with the United States. The VOA could also serve to encourage the opposition to Lula in the likely event that he is elected President.

The Bush Administration needs to prepare a new strategy to counter the imminent takeover of Brazil by the far left. This new strategy should call for a return to the Monroe Doctrine in which the US takes whatever actions are necessary to prevent foreign aggressors and enemies such as Communist China and other terrorist supporting rogue states from establishing additional beachheads in the Western Hemisphere. The Administration should work with Brazil’s traditionally conservative military and its disparate anti-Lula congressional leaders and parties to present a strong and united front against Lula’s inevitable attempts to implement a Marxist, anti-US, pro-Communist program likely utilizing extra-constitutional measures to solidify his control over Brazil.

© 2002 David T. Pyne

David T. Pyne, Esq. is a national security expert who serves as President of the Center for the National Security Interest, a pro-defense, national security think-tank based in Arlington, VA. He has served as a Country Program Director in the Department of Defense responsible for the countries of the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and Latin America and has traveled as a member of Department of Defense-led delegations to Canada, South Africa, Israel, Brazil and Argentina. Mr. Pyne is a licensed attorney and former Army Reserve Officer. He holds an MA in National Security Studies from Georgetown University. Mr. Pyne also serves as Executive Vice President of the Virginia Republican Assembly. Mr. Pyne was recently interviewed on Howard Phillips’ Conservative Roundtable TV program.